TLDR/Summary Introduction I attended the European Urban Resilience Forum (Rotterdam, June 25-27), which brought together city leaders, policy makers, and resilience practitioners grappling with an uncomfortable reality: traditional approaches to climate adaptation may no longer be sufficient in an era of converging and interacting global risks. Rotterdam&#8217;s vice-mayor discussed life six metres below sea level, &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/07/01/think-beyond-climate-what-new-zealand-can-learn-from-the-european-urban-resilience-forum-2025/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Think Beyond Climate: What New Zealand Can Learn from the European Urban Resilience Forum&#160;2025"</a>

Adapt Research

TLDR/Summary


 I attended the 2025 European Urban Resilience Forum

in Rotterdam and learned the following:

 There is a resilience blind spot:

European cities excel at climate adaptation but miss the bigger picture—climate change is just one of 14 global systemic stresses that could cascade into catastrophic failures.

Think Beyond Climate: What New Zealand Can Learn from the European Urban Resilience Forum 2025

Matt Boyd &amp; Nick Wilson

 Summary/TLDR

The recently published Covid-19 Royal Commission’s lessons should be applied beyond pandemic preparation to address all potential global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) needs comprehensive plans for scenarios worse than Covid-19, including those involving

 destruction

rather than just

 disruption

of critical systems.

Learning from Covid-19: Why NZ Needs a Broader View of Catastrophic Risk

Summary/TLDR Risk and New Zealand Risk analysis will be topical in New Zealand in 2023 argues a recent opinion by former NZ Chief Science Adviser Sir Peter Gluckman and Dr Anne Bardsley: Risk listening: rethinking how we understand and manage risk Ongoing disruptions from the Covid-19 pandemic, and more recently extreme weather in the form &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/03/28/yes-nz-needs-a-systematic-national-risk-assessment-but-we-must-not-repeat-others-mistakes/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Yes, NZ needs a systematic National Risk Assessment; but we must not repeat others&#8217;&#160;mistakes"</a>

Summary/TLDR

Sir Peter Gluckman and Anne Bardsley have called for an apolitical NZ national risk assessment. We support this call but note several weaknesses of existing national risk assessments both in New Zealand and globally. The new assessment must be systematic, include global catastrophic risks, engage stakeholders, cooperate with other countries, and appropriately represent risk.

Yes, NZ needs a systematic National Risk Assessment; but we must not repeat others’ mistakes

Dr Matt Boyd &#38; Prof Nick Wilson* Summary This post covers the following: The recent United Nations report ‘Our Common Agenda’ which calls for solidarity, concern for future generations, and collaborative action on global risks including pandemics. The newly mandated Long-term Insights Briefings (LTIB) that Aotearoa NZ public sector organisations must prepare and some ideas &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2021/11/26/current-and-future-generations-must-flourish-time-for-a-long-term-and-global-perspective-on-pandemic-and-other-catastrophic-risks%ef%bf%bc/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Current and future generations must flourish: Time for a long-term and global perspective on pandemic and other catastrophic&#160;risks￼"</a>

Dr Matt Boyd &amp;

Current and future generations must flourish: Time for a long-term and global perspective on pandemic and other catastrophic risks￼

In 1826 Mary Shelly crafted a vision of humanity’s end in ‘The Last Man’. Depicting a world that persists, indifferent to the demise of our species. The end came at the hands a pandemic, spread by the human technologies of trade and news. Since the construction of nuclear weapons in 1945 humanity has wielded technological power of extreme destruction, and expert consensus is that the greatest threat to humans are humans themselves.

Optimism about the Future of Humanity: a conference on existential risks￼

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson “Governments routinely ignore seemingly far-out risks. Rocked by a global pandemic, they need to up their game” (

 The Economist

, 27 June 2020). It is not clear whether risks that threaten human extinction have received appropriate attention at the level of international governance. We systematically searched the documents of the UN Digital Library and concluded that they have not.

Worse than COVID-19: More can and must be done to prevent the greatest threats to human survival

I want to draw attention to an interview in the Guardian I just read about surveillance capitalism and the allegedly illegitimate conquest of personal data by big digital firms.

Surveillance Capitalism: Ought we permit behavioural data to exist?

Donald Trump has just announced a likely build up of US nuclear capability  The threat of nuclear war has probably never been higher, and continues to grow. Given emotional human nature, cognitive irrationality and distributed authority to strike, we have merely been lucky to avoid nuclear war to date. These new moves without a doubt raise the threat of a human extinction event in the near future.

Nuclear insanity has never been worse

Matt Boyd, Sam Ragnarsson, Simon Terry, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary  In the wake of a global catastrophe that severely disrupted liquid fuel trade, New Zealand would face significant challenges in sustaining food production. The nation consumes over 3.7 billion litres of diesel annually but has only 21-days’ supply onshore at any time.

New study – local biofuels would increase NZ survival chances after global catastrophe

Matt Boyd &amp; Nick Wilson

 TLDR/Summary

The US Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (2022) mandated assessment of six major threats that could significantly harm human civilisation: pandemics, climate change, nuclear war, asteroid/comet impacts, supervolcano eruptions, and artificial intelligence (AI). RAND has produced a report representing the first comprehensive US government-mandated assessment of these risks.

Global Catastrophe Assessment: What RAND’s Landmark Report Tells Us About Civilisation’s Biggest Threats

By Matt Boyd &#38; Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Risk and Resilience In the wake of shocks such as Covid-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Cyclone Gabrielle, and many other recent events, resilience has become a central concern for industry and government. Many organisations, including the Ministry of Transport, the Productivity Commission and the New Zealand Infrastructure &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/04/27/risk-and-resilience-in-the-face-of-global-catastrophe-a-closer-look-at-new-zealands-food-security/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Risk and Resilience in the Face of Global Catastrophe: A Closer Look at New Zealand&#8217;s Food&#160;Security"</a>

By Matt Boyd &amp; Nick Wilson

 Summary/TLDR

Recent global events have highlighted the need for resilience planning in the face of catastrophic risks. In a new peer-reviewed paper (paywalled, preprint here) we estimate the impact of nuclear winter scenarios on New Zealand’s food export production, finding it dramatically reduced.

Risk and Resilience in the Face of Global Catastrophe: A Closer Look at New Zealand’s Food Security

AI, digital technology, and the future of work

Over recent years a number of concerns about the future of work have been raised. Many concerns focus upon the ‘robots will take our jobs’ slogan. Commentators representing technology firms tend to disagree and argue that many more jobs will be created.

A Strategy for Future Employment Wellbeing in the face of AI and Digital Transformation

“Artificial Intelligence and Free Will: A 2017 Christmas Carol”  (Talk presented by Matt Boyd at the NZAP Conference) https://adaptresearchwriting.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/artificial-intelligence-and-freedom-nzap-talk.m4a

Artificial Intelligence, Freedom and Democracy: Talk at NZ Association of Philosophers Conference Dec 4, 2017

A Tale of Two Conferences Part II: ASRA ‘Currents of Change’ Symposium 2025


 (In-depth read, 15 min)


 TLDR/Summary


 Part II of a two-part blog series

reporting on a pair of crisis/disaster risk conferences – this one covers the ASRA ‘Currents of Change’ Symposium, which offered a refreshing contrast to the UN’s symptom-focused approach detailed in Part I.

 ASRA brought systems

Changing the Rules to Soften Humanity’s Hard Landing: A Systemic Risk Approach to Everything Going Wrong at Once

By Matt Boyd &#38; Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary What is the NZ Fuel Security Study? The NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) recently published its commissioned NZ Fuel Security Study, developed in response to growing concerns about the nation&#8217;s vulnerability to disruptions in global fuel supply chains. As a remote island nation that imports &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/03/05/beyond-90-days-a-critical-analysis-of-nzs-2025-fuel-security-study/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Beyond 90 Days: A Critical Analysis of NZ’s 2025 Fuel Security&#160;Study"</a>

Beyond 90 Days: A Critical Analysis of NZ’s 2025 Fuel Security Study

By John Kerr, Matt Boyd, &amp; Nick Wilson (Blog crossposted from PHCC ‘the Briefing‘) TLDR/Summary: There is increasing concern over catastrophic threats such as nuclear conflict, engineered pandemics, and emerging technologies including artificial intelligence. Our just published survey research shows New Zealanders want their government to take these risks seriously.

By John Kerr, Matt Boyd, &amp; Nick Wilson (Blog crossposted from PHCC ‘the Briefing‘)

 TLDR/Summary

: There is increasing concern over catastrophic threats such as nuclear conflict, engineered pandemics, and emerging technologies including artificial intelligence. Our just published survey research shows New Zealanders want their government to take these risks seriously.

Majority public support for government action on catastrophic risks

TLDR/Summary Two critical government consultations The New Zealand government has called for submissions on drafts of two major plans pertaining to national infrastructure and fuel security. The NZ Infrastructure Commission and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) have asked how we can future-proof the systems that keep our country running. Our non-partisan independent &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/07/31/building-real-resilience-our-submissions-on-nzs-fuel-and-infrastructure-plans/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Building Real Resilience: Our Submissions on NZ’s Fuel and Infrastructure&#160;Plans"</a>

TLDR/Summary

The NZ Government is consulting on two major draft plans: the

 National Infrastructure Plan

and the

 National Fuel Security Plan

. Our charity,

 Islands for the Future of Humanity

, submitted responses to both, urging stronger planning for

 global catastrophic risks (GCRs)

like nuclear war, extreme pandemics, or trade collapse.

Building Real Resilience: Our Submissions on NZ’s Fuel and Infrastructure Plans

The following is a transcript of our invited presentation to the Environment Canterbury regional council on 10 Sept 2025 as part of Council’s external speaker series and in support of a food resilience strategy. You can click to watch the recorded version which is followed by Q&amp;A with the councillors.

The following is a transcript of our invited presentation to the Environment Canterbury regional council on 10 Sept 2025 as part of Council’s external speaker series and in support of a food resilience strategy. You can click to watch the recorded version which is followed by Q&amp;A with the councillors.

 Introductory Remarks

Thank you for the opportunity to speak today.

Food Security and Global Catastrophic Risk – presentation to Environment Canterbury 10 Sept 2025

[Media Release by University of Otago]

 This blog cross-posts a University of Otago media release about our recent research:

Many former leaders of the world’s nine nuclear-armed nations were impaired by health conditions while in office, raising concerns over their decision-making abilities while they had access to nuclear weapon launch codes, a study from the University of Otago, New Zealand, has found.

Health-impaired world leaders raise nuclear war fears

The AI Forum NZ recently kicked-off six working groups to investigate a range of emerging issues around artificial intelligence and society. Working group #5 has its focus on Growing the AI Talent Pool. New Zealand is facing a shortage of technical workers capable of developing AI applications. In what follows I argue that ‘growing’ is the right metaphor to apply to responsibly solving this problem in the long term.

Growing the AI talent pool: We need deep learning

Background New Zealand public sector agencies must prepare a ‘long-term insights briefing’ every three years. This is an opportunity to look beyond short-term political cycles and use foresight to see what really matters to New Zealand over the longer course.

Background

New Zealand public sector agencies must prepare a ‘long-term insights briefing’ every three years. This is an opportunity to look beyond short-term political cycles and use foresight to see what really matters to New Zealand over the longer course.

A Vision for National Resilience: Our submission on DPMC’s Long-term Insights Briefing

By Adapt Research &#38; Islands for the Future of Humanity TLDR/Summary Our new research demonstrates that with relatively modest investments and strategic planning focused on urban/near-urban agriculture and local biofuel production, New Zealand could significantly enhance its food security resilience during global catastrophes. Our new research on urban and near urban agriculture for food security &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/05/07/catastrophe-proof-food-security-for-new-zealand-blending-near-urban-agriculture-strategic-crop-selection-and-biofuels-as-insurance-against-global-catastrophes/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Catastrophe-Proof Food Security for New Zealand: Blending Near-urban Agriculture, Strategic Crop Selection, and Biofuels as Insurance against Global&#160;Catastrophes"</a>

By Adapt Research &amp; Islands for the Future of Humanity

 TLDR/Summary


 Urban Agriculture Contributes to Food Security but isn’t Sufficient

: Urban agriculture alone could feed ~20% of New Zealand’s urban population post-catastrophe, but requires supplementation.

Catastrophe-Proof Food Security for New Zealand: Blending Near-urban Agriculture, Strategic Crop Selection, and Biofuels as Insurance against Global Catastrophes

By Matt Boyd (Adapt Research Ltd &#38; Islands for the Future of Humanity) (15 min read) TLDR/Summary Introduction In 1983 US President Ronald Reagan viewed two commercial films that influenced his thinking and subsequent US policy on nuclear weapons. The films were The Day After and WarGames. After watching WarGames, in which a computer hacker &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/05/14/fictional-catastrophes-reel-lessons-what-12-critically-acclaimed-films-reveal-about-surviving-global-catastrophes/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Fictional Catastrophes, Reel Lessons: What 12 Critically Acclaimed Films Reveal About Surviving Global&#160;Catastrophes"</a>

Fictional Catastrophes, Reel Lessons: What 12 Critically Acclaimed Films Reveal About Surviving Global Catastrophes

This is a link post for my blog about Professor Alan Robock’s 10 Feb 2025 talk at Victoria University of Wellington.   Professor Robock of Rutgers University has studied the climate effects of nuclear war for 40 years.   I wrote the blog for Islands for the Future of Humanity and the post includes an animation of nuclear winter, and link to Prof Robock’s 2022 TED talk.

Beyond the Blast: Professor Alan Robock on How 100 Nuclear Weapons Could Trigger Global Agricultural Collapse

New US National Academy of Sciences Report reveals the complex web of societal vulnerabilities that could amplify nuclear war’s devastating impact


 TLDR/Summary

The US National Academy of Sciences has just released a comprehensive report on the “Environmental Effects of Nuclear War”. This work extends analysis beyond physical damage to examine impacts on human social and economic systems.

New US NAS Report: How Nuclear War Would Cascade Through Society and Economy

A Tale of Two Conferences Part I: UNDRR Global Platform 2025 (In-depth read, 18 min) TLDR/Summary The 2025 UN Global Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction The costs of disasters continue to spiral upward. In 2020 alone, direct disaster losses reached $200 billion annually, but when cascading and ecosystem impacts are included, the true cost balloons &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/06/18/the-hard-landing-ahead-why-current-disaster-strategies-are-doomed-to-fail/" class="more-link">Continue reading "The Hard Landing Ahead &#8211; Why Current Disaster Strategies Are Doomed to&#160;Fail"</a>

A Tale of Two Conferences Part I

:

 UNDRR Global Platform 2025

(In-depth read, 18 min)

 TLDR/Summary


 Global disaster costs are exploding while responses lag

: Direct losses have reached US$200 billion annually, but cascading effects arguably push the true cost to $2 trillion.

The Hard Landing Ahead – Why Current Disaster Strategies Are Doomed to Fail

Matt Boyd &#38; Islands for the Future of Humanity Summary/TLDR Introduction The reliable supply of electricity underpins virtually every aspect of modern society, from communications and transportation to healthcare and food distribution. While this electrical infrastructure provides immense benefits, our deep dependence on it creates serious vulnerabilities if the system fails.&#160; In October 2024 Cuba &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/01/27/when-the-lights-go-out-understanding-the-risk-of-catastrophic-electrical-failure/" class="more-link">Continue reading "When the Lights Go Out: Understanding the Risk of Catastrophic Electrical&#160;Failure"</a>

Matt Boyd &amp; Islands for the Future of Humanity

 Summary/TLDR

Modern society’s critical dependence on electricity creates severe vulnerabilities to catastrophic electrical system failures.  The 2024 Cuban blackouts demonstrated how quickly electrical failures can trigger cascading societal disruptions, from failed water systems to nationwide protests.

When the Lights Go Out: Understanding the Risk of Catastrophic Electrical Failure

Matt Boyd with Dr Simon Blouin  On 26 February 2025 Islands for the Future of Humanity will host a Webinar and international panel discussion on Managing the Risk of Catastrophic Electricity Failure in New Zealand. Ahead of this event Matt Boyd talks with Dr Simon Blouin about his research on catastrophic electricity loss, supply chain, and food security.

Catastrophic Electricity Loss: Famine and Food Security

By Matt Boyd, Mike Hodgkinson, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary Introduction Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) is supposedly a seafaring nation, but in case of a global catastrophe our interisland and coastal shipping infrastructure is far from being up to scratch. Global catastrophic risks such as nuclear war, supervolcano eruptions, extreme pandemics, cyberattacks and solar storms threaten global &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2024/10/16/lost-at-sea-shipping-in-nz-through-a-catastrophic-risk-lens/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Lost at Sea: Shipping in NZ through a Catastrophic Risk&#160;Lens"</a>

By Matt Boyd, Mike Hodgkinson, Nick Wilson

 TLDR/Summary

NZ’s interisland and coastal shipping infrastructure is inadequate for global catastrophe scenarios that limit international shipping or liquid fuel supply to NZ. The recent history of failures including ferries and coastal ships highlights the vulnerability of interisland connections to any loss of component supply or international expertise.

Lost at Sea: Shipping in NZ through a Catastrophic Risk Lens

Video: Dr Matt Boyd presents highlights of NZ’s vulnerability and resilience to nuclear war and other global catastrophes. You can download a PDF version of this presentation to access all links. Blog Summary/TLDR The CSER Conference On the 17–18th Sept 2024 I joined a diverse set of researchers and analysts converging on the University of &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2024/10/06/lessons-from-the-cambridge-conference-on-catastrophic-risk-2024/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Lessons from the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk&#160;2024"</a>

Video

:

 Dr Matt Boyd presents highlights of NZ’s vulnerability and resilience to nuclear war and other global catastrophes.

Lessons from the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2024

TLDR/Summary Purpose New Zealand imports nearly all its engine fuels, except for small amounts of biofuels. Therefore, the NZ Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is: Seeking specialist services to undertake a Fuel Security Study on fuel security requirements for New Zealand out to 2035. The findings from the Fuel Security Study will feed &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2024/06/20/nzs-fuel-security-study-an-opportunity-to-ensure-survival/" class="more-link">Continue reading "NZ’s Fuel Security Study: An opportunity to ensure&#160;survival"</a>

TLDR/Summary

NZ is vulnerable to interruptions in global fuel trade. MBIE has commissioned a NZ Fuel Security Study. This study is to be commended, but the contractor needs to include analyses through the lens of ‘Global Catastrophic Risks’. Zero liquid fuel import scenarios are possible and must be contemplated. This is the appropriate ‘first principles’ starting point for analysis of fuel security.

NZ’s Fuel Security Study: An opportunity to ensure survival

Through 2023 the NZCat team researched and engaged stakeholders and experts on Aotearoa NZ’s vulnerability and resilience to nuclear war and other global catastrophes. On 25 October 2023 we held the NZCat Project Webinar, comprising a 30min overview of the work, followed by an insightful in-depth expert panel discussion.

Kōrero on Catastrophe: NZCat webinar/panel discussion on resilience to nuclear war and other global risks

NZCat Main Report

for 2023 is now available here (PDF, 118 pages). The report is v1.0, a resource and repository about nuclear war, trade isolation, and other major global risks. It brims with boxed resilience nuggets and examples.

 Webinar

Presentation of highlights from the Main Report (30min) &amp;

MAIN REPORT: Aotearoa NZ, Global Catastrophe, and Resilience Options

Direct link to watch the full webinar recording here. TLDR/Summary Watch the full webinar video What was the background and context to the webinar? In 2023 our group published a report on Aotearoa New Zealand’s (NZ’s) vulnerability and resilience to a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war scenario. NZ is on the one hand a remote island &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2025/02/28/managing-the-risk-of-catastrophic-electricity-loss-webinar-and-panel-discussion-26-feb-2025/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Managing the Risk of Catastrophic Electricity Loss: Webinar and Panel Discussion 26 Feb&#160;2025"</a>

Direct link to watch the full webinar recording here.

 TLDR/Summary


 The threat

: A catastrophic electricity loss (affecting 5%+ of global population for over a month) could be triggered by solar storms, cyberattacks, or high-altitude nuclear explosions—with minimal planning in place for such scenarios.

Managing the Risk of Catastrophic Electricity Loss: Webinar and Panel Discussion 26 Feb 2025

TLDR

: Massive volcanic eruptions can impact global climate and severely disrupt global critical infrastructure. These eruptions are more frequent than previously thought, can have more impact than previously thought, and at lower magnitudes than previously thought. New Zealand (NZ) is less likely to suffer direct effects of climate disturbance, but is highly vulnerable to trade disruption.

Large volcanic eruptions originating elsewhere threaten NZ and other remote nations

TLDR/Summary Two recent risk assessments In this post I briefly discuss two recent government publications on risk, these are: The UK National Risk Register On 4 August the UK released its 2023 UK NRR. This document is publicly facing, though aimed at practitioners, businesses and academics, and highlights 89 threats that are detailed in the &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/08/07/rethinking-risk-towards-a-more-comprehensive-security-strategy-for-new-zealand/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Rethinking Risk: Towards a More Comprehensive Security Strategy for New&#160;Zealand"</a>

TLDR/Summary

The UK has just published a new improved National Risk Register covering 89 major threats, including key global risks like massive (VEI7+) volcanic eruption, emerging infectious disease, and nuclear ‘miscalculation’. NZ has just published a National Security Strategy that focuses on 12 ‘core issues’. The comprehensive nature of the UK Risk Register highlights the siloed and disconnected nature of NZ’s risk analysis

Rethinking Risk: Towards a More Comprehensive Security Strategy for New Zealand

The NZCat Team has a vision for a secure New Zealand, resilient to large scale global disruptions and catastrophic risks. We’ve been researching anticipatory governance of risk, the process of effective national risk assessment, and we’ve published peer-reviewed research on specific risks such as pandemics, nuclear war, massive volcanic eruption, and risks from artificial intelligence.

Securing New Zealand’s Future: Join the National Conversation on Critical Infrastructure Resilience

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR The world continues to face biological threats Major health crises beyond the Covid-19 pandemic are almost certain in the future. The risks include pandemic influenza or a new infectious disease, as well as deliberate biological attacks or accidental release of agents used in biodefence research. &#160; The world may have &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/07/19/ready-or-not-new-research-on-the-global-health-security-index-and-implications-for-pandemic-preparedness/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Ready or Not? New research on the Global Health Security Index and implications for pandemic&#160;preparedness"</a>

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson

 Summary/TLDR

The world remains vulnerable to the persisting risk of pandemics and other biological threats. One tool for informing pandemic preparedness is the Global Health Security (GHS) Index, which was created in 2019 to benchmark countries. However, analysis early in the Covid-19 pandemic did not show the expected correlation between GHS Index scores and Covid-19 outcomes.

Ready or Not? New research on the Global Health Security Index and implications for pandemic preparedness

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, &#38; Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Technical paper in Scientific Reports here Summary video Risk of nuclear war The risk of nuclear war is plausibly rising due to geopolitical tensions, active warfare, expansion and modernisation of arsenals, and erosion of international arms control agreements. Some nations would be devastated by direct targeting &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/05/23/food-for-thought-frost-resistant-crops-to-hedge-against-the-impacts-of-nuclear-winter/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Food for thought: Frost resistant crops to hedge against the impacts of nuclear&#160;winter"</a>

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, &amp; Nick Wilson

 Summary/TLDR

The risk of nuclear war is probably rising due to geopolitical tensions and modernisation of nuclear arsenals. New Zealand (NZ) would suffer severe consequences, including trade collapse, shortages of liquid fuels, and potential nuclear winter effects. Nuclear winter could lead to reduced agricultural production and necessity of growing frost-resistant crops.

Food for thought: Frost resistant crops to hedge against the impacts of nuclear winter

NZCat

The Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) is developing an evidence base and policy agenda for resilience to major global catastrophe. Anyone with expert knowledge pertaining to NZ can contribute by completing the NZCat Survey. If you know about NZ transport, energy, food, water, ICT, economy, trade, resilience, or any other aspect of NZ society, then we would value your perspective.

Nuclear War – help NZ insure against global catastrophe: Complete the NZCat Survey

The New Zealand Government asked the Productivity Commission to undertake an inquiry into the resilience of the New Zealand economy to supply chain disruptions. The major risks to New Zealand are those that arise elsewhere and impact the entire world. Adapt Research and the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) have made a detailed submission to this inquiry.

NZ Economic Resilience: Submission to the Productivity Commission – Focus on Global Catastrophic Risks

By Matt Boyd &#38; Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR: This post is a partial and high-level summary of our research paper on national risk assessment (NRA) published in the academic journal Risk Analysis in March 2023. This post also places our work in the context of another recent report on NRA identifying common ground. Consider reading our &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2023/03/21/revolutionising-national-risk-assessment-nra-improved-methods-and-stakeholder-engagement-to-tackle-global-catastrophe-and-existential-risks/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Revolutionising National Risk Assessment (NRA): improved methods and stakeholder engagement to tackle global catastrophe and existential&#160;risks"</a>

By Matt Boyd &amp; Nick Wilson

 Summary/TLDR:

In a recently published paper, we identified two major shortcomings of National Risk Assessment (NRA) processes: (1) Lack of transparency around foundational assumptions; (2) Exclusion of the largest scale risks We demonstrate the potential problems and ambiguities that arise in NRA due to these shortcomings.

Revolutionising National Risk Assessment (NRA): improved methods and stakeholder engagement to tackle global catastrophe and existential risks

Photo by Joshua Sukoff on Unsplash

 TLDR:

Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) include those events or incidents consequential enough to significantly harm or set back human civilization at the global scale (including: severe global pandemics, nuclear war, asteroid and comet impacts, supervolcanoes, sudden and severe changes to the climate, and intentional or accidental threats arising from the use and development of emerging

US takes action to avert human existential catastrophe: The Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (2022)

TLDR Overview The world still faces the risk of nuclear conflict and resulting severe cascading global impacts. A new paper from the McGuinness Institute provides a summary of the excellent work on the nuclear risk to NZ that was completed in the 1980s. This work found that the likely impact of a Northern Hemisphere nuclear &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2022/12/09/nuclear-war-and-nz-impact-and-mitigation-approaches/" class="more-link">Continue reading "Nuclear War and NZ: Impact and Mitigation&#160;Approaches"</a>

TLDR

The McGuinness institute has released a report summarising the likely impacts of nuclear war on NZ and calling for a national risk assessment and strategy This report was published the same week as our peer-reviewed paper on islands and nuclear war, which uses NZ as a case study Nuclear war is a representative global catastrophic risk, and a national risk assessment would increase understanding of risk and mitigation

Nuclear War and NZ: Impact and Mitigation Approaches

This is a link post to our new long-read on nuclear winter and abrupt sunlight reducing scenarios.

Islands, nuclear winter, and trade disruption as an existential risk factor

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson, Ben Payne (12 min read)

 TLDR:

The draft NZ National Security Long-term Insights Briefing (already informed by a public survey) is currently out for public consultation.

NZ’s National Security Draft Long-term Insights Briefing (LTIB): Excellent Progress but Scope for Improvement

Seminar 21 Oct 2022

Ahead of our forthcoming Aotearoa New Zealand Catastrophe Resilience Project, I presented a seminar at the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. You can listen to the

 audio of the seminar

here (90 min total, question time with the CSER audience begins at 58:30). The

 slides associated with the presentation

can be downloaded here.

Islands and global catastrophic risks: a seminar at the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

This post introduces the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat), and outlines the aims, methods, and results of the project. You can read a range of project blogs here.

Introducing the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat)

This short piece is a reply to Dr Reuben Steff’s insightful new article about geopolitics and strategic risks to New Zealand on Newsroom

: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/nz-cant-kick-the-can-on-global-crises Great piece Reuben, and I largely agree with your assessment.

NZ and Global Crises: Brief reply to Reuben Steff

TLDR

: This post surveys Peter Zeihan’s new book on demographic trends and geopolitical strife, in which he warns of future severe disruptions to global trade, and the likelihood of industrial collapse in many regions.

‘The End of the World is Just the Beginning’ and the value of a NZ National Catastrophe Resilience Strategy

Dr Matt Boyd &amp; Prof Nick Wilson*

 Efforts to prevent nuclear war should be greatly intensified – but we must also consider what happens if prevention fails. NZ is often cited as somewhere most likely to preserve a thriving society through a nuclear aftermath. However, our society is a complex adaptive system heavily dependent on trade.

Sustained Resilience: the impact of nuclear war on New Zealand and how to mitigate catastrophe

“COVID-19 has shown that assumptions about disease emergence and transmission and capabilities to respond to infectious disease threats are not only incorrect but pose a risk to global health security.”  A new article in the Lancet (8 November 2021) provides a peer-reviewed chronological analysis of crucial junctures and international obligations in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. What happened day by day, where, why, or why not?

Covid-19 the Prequel: Lessons learned from a day-by-day account before the WHO uttered ‘pandemic’￼

(9 min read) Dr Matt Boyd &amp; Prof Nick Wilson

 In this blog we briefly review the literature on the probability of nuclear war and what various models estimate to be the potential global climate impacts (eg, of nuclear winter). Although New Zealand is relatively well placed as a major food producer – a range of mitigation strategies could increase the probability of sustaining food security during a recovery period.

Putin and the Bomb: Why New Zealand national risk assessments should include planning for the potential impacts of nuclear winter￼￼

In this post, I summarise and review the book

 What’s the worst that could happen?: Existential risks and extreme politics

– by Australian politician Andrew Leigh (published 9 Nov 2021)

 TLDR the TLDR:

Populism enhances x-risks

 TLDR:

Andrew Leigh argues that the short-sighted politics of populism has enhanced existential risk.

An Australian politician’s take on populism and existential risks

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, everybody now knows that: Warnings about pandemic disease had been touted for decadesMyriad organisations had called for increased health security fundingThe world ignored all these warningsSARS-CoV-2 emerged in 2019 with dire consequences  The fact that all these warnings were known, yet action was scant, remains difficult to comprehend.

Covid-19 was no black swan, but a paradigmatic black elephant

Despite a WHO-led investigation, compelling evidence on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains inconclusive. The WHO investigation concluded in favour of a natural origin, being satisfied that ‘asking whatever questions we wanted’ and obtaining answers to these questions ruled out a laboratory leak.

SARS-CoV-2: A modern Greek Tragedy?

Spoiler alert:

it has nothing to do with proving the origin of Covid-19, pointing the finger, apportioning blame, reparations, or US-China relations.

Why the Covid-19 lab-leak theory is a big deal

Key Points

Biological threats far worse than Covid-19 are possible, even likely.Governments should consider worst case scenarios and contingencies.Risks should be catalogued and published in a form that expresses expected utility loss (probability x impact).In an existence threatening scenario, Australia and New Zealand are the island refuges most suited to seal borders to safeguard humanity.Many practical steps can be taken to

Island Refuges: How Australia and New Zealand could cooperate to protect humanity from catastrophic biological threats and nuclear winter

Effective vaccines for COVID-19 raise the potential of disease eradication (elimination at the global level). Adapt Research contributed to a recent blog that considers the advantages and the challenges of eradication. Progressive expansion of “green zones” provide the best chance of eradicating COVID-19 and achieving the associated medium and long-term benefits. Full blog hosted externally, click here to continue reading.

“Green zones” pave the way to eradication of SARS-CoV-2

Social media is killing us with COVID-19

In December 2017, six months after writing a paper about how islands like New Zealand should use complete border closure as a rational pandemic response, I was giving a talk about artificial intelligence as a threat to democracy and free will to a room full of philosophers in Dunedin, New Zealand.

The algorithm, the asshole, and the virus

The Victoria University of Wellington policy journal

 Policy Quarterly

has just published a theme issue examining COVID-19 and the New Zealand context. Articles cover: government, law, globalisation, health, lockdown, the economy and much more.

Policy Quarterly Journal: Focus on COVID-19 and New Zealand

A new paper explains how the GHSI can be used to guide preparations in New Zealand and the Pacific

New Zealand has done well to date in managing and eliminating (for now) COVID-19 disease. However, there have been sensible calls for an inquiry into New Zealand’s response. An inquiry could help determine what worked and what didn’t, what went well, and how we could do better next time.

The Global Health Security Index (GHSI) is a good starting point on the road to minimising biological threats

The only way to contain coronavirus cases in NZ

is to go to Alert Level 4 for a brief period.

Alert Level 4 will minimise long-term pain

I’ve just spent the last three days reading Stuart Russell’s new book on AI safety, ‘Human Compatible’. To be fair I didn’t read continuously for three days, this is because the book rewards thoughtful pauses to walk or drink coffee, because it nurtures reflection about what really matters.

Are Humans ‘Human Compatible’?

Following a recent post on the University of Otago’s Public Health Expert blog, Matt from Adapt Research discusses COVID-19 with Radio New Zealand’s ‘The Panel’

 Read

the Blog here: https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/04/12/changes-in-mobility-in-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic-nz-vs-other-countries-and-the-stories-it-suggests/

 Listen

to the discussion here (6min):

COVID-19 and Google mobility data in New Zealand and other countries

New Zealand has just shut its borders to foreign visitors for the first time in history in an attempt to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. In what follows, I outline the case for border closure, the conditions under which it is rational, and then note that this is merely one measure against one catastrophe. Moving forward, we should get used to analysing and preparing responses to such large-scale risks.

In the face of catastrophe: The rationale for border closure and other significant steps

The Global Health Security Index which considers pandemic threats has just been published. Unfortunately NZ scores approximately half marks (54/100), coming in 35

 th

in the world rankings – far behind Australia.

Much work ahead to complete New Zealand’s pandemic preparedness

The AI Forum of New Zealand has just published a report on AI and Health in the New Zealand context. The report trumpets some of the potential cost savings and efficiencies that AI will no doubt bring to the sector over the next few years. However, there are other interesting findings in the research report worth highlighting.

The promise of AI in healthcare

Guyon Espiner has written two pieces in the last week about Pharmac, New Zealand’s medicines buying agency. They can be found here and here. Both pieces read as attacks. Claiming that the ‘secret’ black box processes Pharmac uses to justify funding for some medicines and not for others is causing people to die. I do not work for Pharmac, and beyond being a citizen of New Zealand, I have no vested interest in how Pharmac operates.

Guyon, we are the problem, not Pharmac

This post is on what I consider to be the most pressing problem in the world today.


 I lay out the theory underpinning information pollution, the significance and trajectory of the problem, and propose solutions (see bullets at the end).


 I encourage you to persist in reading this post, so that we can all continue this important conversation.


 Introduction

Keeping our eye on the laser phish: Information pollution, risk, and global priorities

Does AI driven micro targeting of digital content violate human rights? The UN says ‘yes!’  Last month the United Nations published a document on AI and human rights with a particular focus on automated content distribution. The report focuses on the rights to freedom of opinion and expression, which are often excluded from public and political debates on artificial intelligence.

AI content targeting may violate human rights

Several recent reports have argued that we need to take ‘an ethical approach’ when designing and using digital technologies, including artificial intelligence. Recent global events such as various Facebook, fake news, and Cambridge Analytica scandals appear to emphasize this need. But what does taking an ethical approach entail? Here are a few ideas I’ve spent Sunday morning thinking about.

What does taking an ethical approach to digital media and artificial intelligence mean?

The cost of cancer care is rising and a review of the research literature on cancer care in Australia can teach many lessons to us in New Zealand. In Australia real costs for cancer per person (adjusting for inflation) have more than doubled in the last 25 years.

Efficient Cancer Care in New Zealand: Lessons from five years of Australian research literature

From the University of Otago Press Release about our latest study:  Closing the border may make sense for New Zealand in some extreme pandemic situations, according to a newly published study of the costs and benefits of taking this step.

Economic evidence for closing border in a severe pandemic: now we need the values discussion

We have just published an article (free online) on existential risks – with a NZ perspective.
 
 1
 
 A blog version is hosted by SciBlogs


 .


 What follows is the introduction to that blog:


 
 Do we value future people?
 

Do we care about the wellbeing of people who don’t yet exist?

Do we care about future people?

Everyone knows that socio-economic inequalities in health exist – in recent times. But one thing we do not know is whether they have always been there. Adapt Research Ltd contributed to a just published study that looks at two historical datasets – with one of these suggesting life span differences by occupational class as measured 100 years ago.

Health inequalities in NZ

Last week the AI forum New Zealand released its report ‘Artificial Intelligence: Shaping a future New Zealand’. I wish to commend the authors for an excellent piece of horizon scanning, which lays the foundation for a much-needed ongoing discussion about AI and New Zealand, because, like the Wild West there is much as yet unknown regarding AI. Microsoft was at pains to point this out in their ‘The Future Computed’ report published earlier

A response to the AI Forum NZ’s ‘Shaping a Future New Zealand’ report

The following introduction is an excerpt from a just published blog at Sciblogs that examines the role of AI in society and democracy. Read the full article here:

Transformative advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have generated much hype and a burst of dialogue in New Zealand.

From Russia with Love: Time for serious work on the benefits and risks of artificial intelligence

Falls are a major cause of injury and reduced quality of life for older people. Estimates suggest that more than a quarter of people over 65 years of age fall in any given year. Broken hips and head injuries are among the most serious complications of a fall. This is why the New Zealand Health Quality and Safety Commission has spent several years encouraging the health sector in New Zealand to implement programmes that reduce harm from falls.

Reducing Harm from Falls: What have we learned in the last 12 months?

To read a Radio New Zealand article citing Adapt Research Ltd’s research paper on AI in

 Policy Quarterly,

click here: https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/352044/govt-too-upbeat-about-ai-expert

Artificial Intelligence in the Media

As we build our world we build our minds: reboot

Six years ago, while I was writing my PhD on technology and human nature, I wrote a blog where I argued that: Context builds us – Our social and technological environments can hinder, but they can also drive psychological development. Technology drives human development – Physical and digital tools shape us and build our intelligence;

Technological innovation builds our minds, does it build society too?

Catheter ablation (CA) for atrial fibrillation (AF) is a procedure with high up-front costs but is superior to pharmacologic treatments for reducing symptoms

 1

and hospital presentations

 2

. In patients with mild symptoms or few hospitalisations the cost of CA may not be justified.

Catheter Ablation is cost-saving if we choose the right patients with Atrial Fibrillation

The Guardian headline reads: “New heart treatment is biggest breakthrough since statins” and the article goes on to claim that “cancer deaths were also halved”.  Sounds impressive. So how should we decide whether to fund this drug?  The New England Journal of Medicine published the findings of a randomised controlled trial into this new treatment just two days ago.  The study was well constructed, with an impressive sounding 10,061 participants.

Funding a new drug: A Devil’s Advocate, back-of-the-envelope approach

The New Zealand Ministry of Health has recently published its 2017 pandemic action plan. Flicking through it I noted that it tends to cite other governmental publications rather than academic sources. Of course, many of the publications cited may well cite the academic literature themselves, but I decided to take a quick independent look at what has been published since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

How to survive the next big pandemic

Artificial intelligence has arrived, is here to stay, and is likely to transform our work-lives, personal lives and social structures. Exactly how no one is entirely sure. The potential of AI was very apparent from discussions at the IBM Watson Summit in Auckland on August 16, 2017, and the New Zealand AI Forum ‘Connect’ event that followed.

Artificial Intelligence: the great unknown

Safe and effective healthcare is frustrated by failures in communication. We know that double checking drug names and doses and using checklists are huge boons to patient safety. Effective communication is important too. Repeating back important information (read back) enhances the effectiveness of communication across many industries. However, formal communication protocols are uncommon in healthcare teams.

Read back is critical for healthcare communication and safe teamwork

There will almost certainly be future pandemic diseases that pose a grave threat to human lives. Pandemic influenza, novel emerging infectious agents and possible synthetic bioweapons all pose serious risks. It seems biologically plausible that a new infectious agent might have the transmission characteristics of influenza and the death rate of Ebola.

Should we close borders in a pandemic?

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary Two Tales of the Apocalypse In the book The Knowledge Lewis Dartnell speculates on how someone might rebuild civilisation from scratch after an apocalypse. The essential minerals he mentions, in rough order of priority, include those needed for agriculture (potassium, nitrogen, and phosphorus for fertiliser), food preservation (salt), thermal energy &#8230; <a href="https://adaptresearchwriting.com/2024/10/22/the-critical-minerals-that-matter-aotearoa-nzs-basic-needs-in-a-global-catastrophe/" class="more-link">Continue reading "The Critical Minerals That Matter: Aotearoa/NZ’s Basic Needs in a Global&#160;Catastrophe"</a>

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson

 TLDR/Summary

The NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment released a Draft Critical Minerals List, for public consultation (now closed). The list is based on a report by Wood MacKenzie which identified a short list of critical minerals. We find that the list could pay more attention to the minerals essential to NZ in a global catastrophe scenario.

The Critical Minerals That Matter: Aotearoa/NZ’s Basic Needs in a Global Catastrophe

NZCat Project Team

: Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Simon Terry, Sam Ragnarsson, Nick Wilson

 SUMMARY / TLDR

This blog provides brief highlights of the NZCat Interview Study, which consulted diverse experts to estimate the vulnerabilities and resilience options for Aotearoa NZ in the face of a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war.

Expert Views on Aotearoa NZ’s Vulnerability and Resilience to Nuclear War and other Global Catastrophes

This week Adapt Research’s Matt Boyd had a conversation with journalist Peter Griffin of BusinessDesk. The pair had a wide-ranging discussion about global catastrophic risk and what this means for NZ.   Topics include risks from AI, biothreats, climate change, nuclear or great power war, volcanoes, and the gaps in New Zealand’s risk management system.