Matt Boyd & Islands for the Future of Humanity Summary/TLDR Introduction The reliable supply of electricity underpins virtually every aspect of modern society, from communications and transportation to healthcare and food distribution. While this electrical infrastructure provides immense benefits, our deep dependence on it creates serious vulnerabilities if the system fails.  In October 2024 Cuba … Continue reading "When the Lights Go Out: Understanding the Risk of Catastrophic Electrical Failure"

Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR The recently published Covid-19 Royal Commission’s lessons should be applied beyond pandemic preparation to address all potential global catastrophic risks (GCRs). Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) needs comprehensive plans for scenarios worse than Covid-19, including those involving destruction rather than just disruption of critical systems.

Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary The US Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (2022) mandated assessment of six major threats that could significantly harm human civilisation: pandemics, climate change, nuclear war, asteroid/comet impacts, supervolcano eruptions, and artificial intelligence (AI). RAND has produced a report representing the first comprehensive US government-mandated assessment of these risks.

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary Two Tales of the Apocalypse In the book The Knowledge Lewis Dartnell speculates on how someone might rebuild civilisation from scratch after an apocalypse. The essential minerals he mentions, in rough order of priority, include those needed for agriculture (potassium, nitrogen, and phosphorus for fertiliser), food preservation (salt), thermal energy … Continue reading "The Critical Minerals That Matter: Aotearoa/NZ’s Basic Needs in a Global Catastrophe"

By Matt Boyd, Mike Hodgkinson, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary Introduction Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) is supposedly a seafaring nation, but in case of a global catastrophe our interisland and coastal shipping infrastructure is far from being up to scratch. Global catastrophic risks such as nuclear war, supervolcano eruptions, extreme pandemics, cyberattacks and solar storms threaten global … Continue reading "Lost at Sea: Shipping in NZ through a Catastrophic Risk Lens"

Video: Dr Matt Boyd presents highlights of NZ’s vulnerability and resilience to nuclear war and other global catastrophes. You can download a PDF version of this presentation to access all links. Blog Summary/TLDR The CSER Conference On the 17–18th Sept 2024 I joined a diverse set of researchers and analysts converging on the University of … Continue reading "Lessons from the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2024"

TLDR/Summary Purpose New Zealand imports nearly all its engine fuels, except for small amounts of biofuels. Therefore, the NZ Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is: Seeking specialist services to undertake a Fuel Security Study on fuel security requirements for New Zealand out to 2035. The findings from the Fuel Security Study will feed … Continue reading "NZ’s Fuel Security Study: An opportunity to ensure survival"

Matt Boyd, Sam Ragnarsson, Simon Terry, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson TLDR/Summary In the wake of a global catastrophe that severely disrupted liquid fuel trade, New Zealand would face significant challenges in sustaining food production. The nation consumes over 3.7 billion litres of diesel annually but has only 21-days’ supply onshore at any time.

NZCat Main Report for 2023 is now available here (PDF, 118 pages). The report is v1.0, a resource and repository about nuclear war, trade isolation, and other major global risks. It brims with boxed resilience nuggets and examples. Webinar Presentation of highlights from the Main Report (30min) &

Through 2023 the NZCat team researched and engaged stakeholders and experts on Aotearoa NZ’s vulnerability and resilience to nuclear war and other global catastrophes. On 25 October 2023 we held the NZCat Project Webinar, comprising a 30min overview of the work, followed by an insightful in-depth expert panel discussion.

NZCat Project Team : Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Simon Terry, Sam Ragnarsson, Nick Wilson SUMMARY / TLDR This blog provides brief highlights of the NZCat Interview Study, which consulted diverse experts to estimate the vulnerabilities and resilience options for Aotearoa NZ in the face of a Northern Hemisphere nuclear war.