This week Adapt Research’s Matt Boyd had a conversation with journalist Peter Griffin of BusinessDesk. The pair had a wide-ranging discussion about global catastrophic risk and what this means for NZ. Topics include risks from AI, biothreats, climate change, nuclear or great power war, volcanoes, and the gaps in New Zealand’s risk management system.

TLDR : Massive volcanic eruptions can impact global climate and severely disrupt global critical infrastructure. These eruptions are more frequent than previously thought, can have more impact than previously thought, and at lower magnitudes than previously thought. New Zealand (NZ) is less likely to suffer direct effects of climate disturbance, but is highly vulnerable to trade disruption.

This is a link-post to results of a recent survey. In an election year, there is a huge opportunity for New Zealand political parties to clearly state their policies for ensuring a safe and secure New Zealand in the face of long-term and global catastrophic risks, which plausibly harbour almost all the actual risk to the country. Do the main parties support a US-style Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act?

TLDR/Summary Two recent risk assessments In this post I briefly discuss two recent government publications on risk, these are: The UK National Risk Register On 4 August the UK released its 2023 UK NRR. This document is publicly facing, though aimed at practitioners, businesses and academics, and highlights 89 threats that are detailed in the … Continue reading "Rethinking Risk: Towards a More Comprehensive Security Strategy for New Zealand"

The NZCat Team has a vision for a secure New Zealand, resilient to large scale global disruptions and catastrophic risks. We’ve been researching anticipatory governance of risk, the process of effective national risk assessment, and we’ve published peer-reviewed research on specific risks such as pandemics, nuclear war, massive volcanic eruption, and risks from artificial intelligence.

Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR The world continues to face biological threats Major health crises beyond the Covid-19 pandemic are almost certain in the future. The risks include pandemic influenza or a new infectious disease, as well as deliberate biological attacks or accidental release of agents used in biodefence research.   The world may have … Continue reading "Ready or Not? New research on the Global Health Security Index and implications for pandemic preparedness"

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, Nick Wilson To hedge against major global catastrophe such as nuclear war/winter, New Zealand needs to invest in planning. We need resilience infrastructure as well as resilient infrastructure – there is an important distinction. Preparation would also help reduce climate emissions and mitigate a range of other risks.

By Matt Boyd, Ben Payne, & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Technical paper in Scientific Reports here Summary video Risk of nuclear war The risk of nuclear war is plausibly rising due to geopolitical tensions, active warfare, expansion and modernisation of arsenals, and erosion of international arms control agreements. Some nations would be devastated by direct targeting … Continue reading "Food for thought: Frost resistant crops to hedge against the impacts of nuclear winter"

NZCat The Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) is developing an evidence base and policy agenda for resilience to major global catastrophe. Anyone with expert knowledge pertaining to NZ can contribute by completing the NZCat Survey. If you know about NZ transport, energy, food, water, ICT, economy, trade, resilience, or any other aspect of NZ society, then we would value your perspective.

By Matt Boyd & Nick Wilson Summary/TLDR Risk and Resilience In the wake of shocks such as Covid-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Cyclone Gabrielle, and many other recent events, resilience has become a central concern for industry and government. Many organisations, including the Ministry of Transport, the Productivity Commission and the New Zealand Infrastructure … Continue reading "Risk and Resilience in the Face of Global Catastrophe: A Closer Look at New Zealand’s Food Security"

The New Zealand Government asked the Productivity Commission to undertake an inquiry into the resilience of the New Zealand economy to supply chain disruptions. The major risks to New Zealand are those that arise elsewhere and impact the entire world. Adapt Research and the Aotearoa NZ Catastrophe Resilience Project (NZCat) have made a detailed submission to this inquiry.