New ideas in economics and the social sciences

<img width="150" height="150" src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?zoom=2&amp;resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="9160" data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/08/22/from-commodity-to-asset-the-truth-behind-rising-house-prices/hpi_cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?fit=3000%2C2400&amp;ssl=1" data-orig-size="3000,2400" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="hpi_cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?fit=300%2C240&amp;ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?fit=723%2C578&amp;ssl=1" tabindex="0" role="button" />Houses are getting more expensive. In this post, I look at the reasons why.
The post <a href="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/08/22/from-commodity-to-asset-the-truth-behind-rising-house-prices/">From Commodity to Asset: The Truth Behind Rising House Prices</a> appeared first on <a href="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com">Economics from the Top Down</a>.

Blair Fix

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/hpi_cover.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w,

From Commodity to Asset: The Truth Behind  Rising House Prices

I’m sick of the AI hype and scaremongering. The idea that AI could take over the world is laughable.

Download: PDF | EPUB  In the last few months, there have been a string of open letters from tech leaders warning that artificial intelligence could lead to a ‘profound change in the history of life on Earth’. According to some insiders, AI poses an extinction risk, on the same level as pandemics and nuclear war. I think this scaremongering is nonsense. It plays into popular science fiction tropes about machines conquering humanity.

No, AI Does Not Pose an Existential Risk to Humanity

Does the deep past live with us, encoded in the structure of our institutions?

One of the challenges of studying the past is that time has a maddening way of erasing evidence. Take the origin of life — the ultimate cold case. Had the first organisms been wise enough to fossilize themselves, we would know exactly how life began. Fortunately, the first organisms

 did

preserve themselves, at least in rough form. That’s because life is itself a kind of time capsule.

Institution Size as a Window into Cultural Evolution

Yes you should read ‘Scale’. No, don’t believe everything it says.

For several years, people have been urging me to read Geoffrey West’s book

 Scale

, claiming that his work overlaps with my own. Having read the book, I largely agree (with some caveats below). Geoffrey West is a physicist who’s become famous for studying ‘scaling’ effects across life on Earth. What is ‘scaling’? It’s best explained through an example. Figure 1 (taken from West’s book) shows how animals’ metabolism varies with body mass.

A Review of Geoffrey West’s ‘Scale’

Twitter trolls don’t think much of my chart relating income inequality to murder rates. Here’s a detailed response.

Download: PDF | EPUB  There’s nothing like waking up to a boatload of Twitter scorn. It’s refreshing, in a masochistic sort of way. Some backstory. After most of my blog posts, I put the charts on Twitter, usually with a provocative caption.

Masochistic Fun with Plutocratic Murder

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/bitcoin_cover-1.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/bitcoin_cover-1.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

Is Bitcoin More Energy Intensive Than Mainstream Finance?

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/forbes400_fade.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/forbes400_fade.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

How the Rich Get Richer

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/five_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/five_cover.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

Five Years of Economics from the Top Down

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/padlock.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/padlock.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w,

Nixing Technological Lock In

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/desouza_cover-1.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/desouza_cover-1.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

Massaging the Message: How Oilpatch Newspapers Censor the News

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/counting_billionaires.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/counting_billionaires.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

Billionaires Are So Predictable

DT Cochrane and I look at the network of corporate power behind Canada’s richest families.

Download: PDF | EPUB

 Blair Fix and DT Cochrane

Every billionaire is … a factory for producing policy failures at scale. — Cory Doctorow The planet has a billionaire problem. According to Oxfam, the world’s billionaires have more combined wealth than the bottom 60% of humanity — some 4.6 billion people. Given this obscene situation, calls are growing to rid the world of the billionaire class. But how do we make that happen?

Mapping the Ownership Network of Canada’s Billionaire Families

The state of the world from the elite point of view.

A few days ago, I received the attached essay, sent to me in error by a Dr. Tom Riddle. It offers a fascinating glimpse into the elite worldview. (Cover image: Elodie Tihange, altered)

 There is no good and evil. There is only power and those too weak to seek it.

— Lord Voldemort For centuries, philosophers have sought to understand concepts such as ‘equity’, ‘fairness’, and ‘justice’. The result has been widespread confusion.

The Voldemort Index

Nitzan and Bichler show that the ratio of net interest to profit is strongly related to the rate of unemployment. Here’s my take on their research, along with some data updates.

Download: PDF | EPUB  In my last post, I discussed the underwhelming relation between interest rates and unemployment. In this post, I’ll look at a better way to connect unemployment to interest income. It turns out that if you take US net interest and divide it by corporate profit, you get a ratio that closely tracks unemployment.

Unemployment and the Maturity of Capitalism

Are interest rates a neutral policy variable? Or are they a tool for class warfare? It turns out that the evidence speaks for itself. Here are three ways that higher interest rates redistribute income.

Download: PDF | EPUB [I]nterest rates are, first and foremost, a distributional variable that affects the income shares of various social groups. — Louis-Philippe Rochon &amp; Mark Setterfield (2007) When I read about monetary policy, I have a rule of thumb. Every time I see the phrase

 interest rate

, I replace it with the term

 wage rate

. Then I ask myself whether the discussion still makes sense. Often, it does not.

How Interest Rates Redistribute Income

I look at the class battle between wage workers and creditors, and how this struggle relates to inflation.

Download: PDF | EPUB  I’ve been writing about inflation for the better part of three months. It’s been exhausting. Most of my time has been spent debunking misconceptions promoted by mainstream economists. Fortunately, I’m ready to move on.  What’s interesting about inflation is not the fact that prices rise.

Inflation! The Battle Between Creditors and Workers

According to economic orthodoxy, higher interest rates reduce inflation. In this post, I hold your monetary faith to the fire. Can it survive?

Download: PDF | EPUB

 They did not mind stating apparently opposed truths; they knew that they could give to men a higher truth, in which the contradictories became two sides of the same truth.

— Rev. Stopford A. Brooke, 1872 Whenever inflation rears its head, the call soon comes to raise interest rates. The rationale is simple. Higher interest rates put a damper on the supply of money. And this monetary clamp slows inflation.

Do High Interest Rates Reduce Inflation? A Test of Monetary Faith

I use a model of hierarchy to explore how income has been redistributed within US firms.

Download: PDF | EPUB  If an unmarked package arrived at your door, how would you figure out what was inside? The catch is that you cannot open it.  As a social scientist, I deal with this ‘black-box’ problem all the time. I (metaphorically) watch people go to work at firms. And I see them come home with income. Then I try to picture the ‘machine’ that gave people money.

Firming Up Hierarchy

I’ve started a new section of this blog where I’ll share tips for doing data-driven science.

Exciting news, readers! I’ve started a new section of this blog called Blair’s Science Desk. I’m going to use this section to post tips about doing data-driven science. In creating Science Desk, my goal is to separate two aspects of my writing. On the one hand, I like to write long pieces about original research. On the other hand, I also like to write short notes about doing science.

Check Out My Science Desk

Does hierarchy mediate the growth of top incomes?

Download PDF Abstract   Although the determinants of income are complex, the results are surprisingly uniform. To a first approximation, top incomes follow a power-law distribution, and the redistribution of income corresponds to a change in the power-law exponent. Given the messiness of the struggle for resources, why is the outcome so simple?

Redistributing Income Through Hierarchy

An interview on the ‘Platform’ podcast.

Last week I had the pleasure to chat with Rachel Donald on her podcast ‘Platform’. The show features people who are ‘pissed off with capitalism’. Its goal is to give a platform for under-reported topics that deserve traction and attention. Rachel and I talked about a wide range of topics, but I particularly enjoyed discussing my research on hierarchy and income.

Talking Hierarchy With Rachel Donald

<img width="150" height="150" src="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1" class="attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image" alt="" decoding="async" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?zoom=2&amp;resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 300w" sizes="(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px" data-attachment-id="9520" data-permalink="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/10/23/the-american-housing-crisis-a-theft-not-a-shortage/rent_poor_cover/" data-orig-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?fit=3000%2C2700&amp;ssl=1" data-orig-size="3000,2700" data-comments-opened="1" data-image-meta="{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}" data-image-title="rent_poor_cover" data-image-description="" data-image-caption="" data-medium-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?fit=300%2C270&amp;ssl=1" data-large-file="https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?fit=723%2C651&amp;ssl=1" tabindex="0" role="button" />I test if the US housing crisis could be solved by taking money from the rich and handing it too the poor. Spoilers ... it would work.
The post <a href="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/10/23/the-american-housing-crisis-a-theft-not-a-shortage/">The American Housing Crisis: A Theft, Not a Shortage</a> appeared first on <a href="https://economicsfromthetopdown.com">Economics from the Top Down</a>.

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rent_poor_cover.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w,

The American Housing Crisis: A Theft, Not a Shortage

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/earth_backfire.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/earth_backfire.png?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w,

A Tour of the Jevons Paradox: How Energy Efficiency Backfires

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/billionaire_monopoly.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/billionaire_monopoly.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w,

Stocking Up on Wealth … Concentration

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/tmpaxgnsdau.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/tmpaxgnsdau.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w,

The Great Gatsby Curve Among America’s Über Rich

{.attachment-thumbnail .size-thumbnail .wp-post-image width=“150” height=“150” decoding=“async” loading=“lazy” srcset=“https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/money_yacht.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/economicsfromthetopdown.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/money_yacht.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w,

When Stocks Go Up, Who Benefits?

How do you tell the story of plutocratic crime? If you’re Cory Doctorow, you write a detective novel about a forensic accountant. It’s a must-read book that sheds light on the often-ignored world of elite finance.

Download: PDF | EPUB  I still remember when I first encountered Cory Doctorow’s writing. After an internet rabbit hole, I landed on his post ‘Ford patents plutocratic lane-changes’. Man, it made me laugh. Here was a sci-fi writer describing a (real) Ford patent that would monetize the right to change lanes. Is Ford paving the way to a plutocratic hell?

Red Team Blues: Cory Doctorow’s Anti-Finance Thriller

There is strong evidence that higher interest rates don’t mitigate inflation. Instead, they might make it worse. I wade through the details here.

Download: PDF | EPUB If you’re just tuning in, I’ve spent the last few months debunking some common misconceptions about inflation:

 Is inflation a uniform increase in prices?

No. Inflation is wildly differential.

 Is inflation driven by an ‘over-heated’ economy?

No. Inflation tends to come with economic stagnation.

Interest Rates and Inflation: Knives Out

Using standard tools of economic analysis, I show that the key to reducing inflation is to raise wages as fast as possible.

Download: PDF | EPUB

 To manage inflation, governments have a simple tool


 at their disposal: raise wages as fast as possible.

— Milton Fryman For the last few months, I’ve been diving into the economics of inflation. In this post, I’m excited to review some forgotten history. Our journey starts with a basic question: what is the key policy tool for managing the rate of inflation?

The Key to Managing Inflation? Higher Wages

Low energy growth tends to come with high inflation — what economists call ‘stagflation’. But what causes what? I have a look here.

Download: PDF | EPUB  In my last post, I looked at the relation between economic growth and inflation. As per usual, the evidence didn’t sit well with mainstream economics. According to standard theory, there is a trade off between low inflation and high economic growth. The idea is that you can have one or the other, but not both. So if you want to keep inflation low, you have to ‘cool off’ the economy by slowing economic growth.

The Cause of Stagflation

I use World Bank data to test Nitzan and Bichler’s ‘stagflation thesis’ — the idea that inflation in the midst of economic stagnation is the norm.

Download: PDF | EPUB  [I]nflation in the midst of stagnation is not an anomaly. If anything, it is the general rule. — Nitzan and Bichler, 2009  As much of the world grapples with post-Covid price gouging, it seems like a good time to revisit our understanding of inflation.

Is Stagflation the Norm?

Here are the 10 most-read posts of the year.

Well folks, another year has come to a close. Like 2020, I spent most of 2021 hunkered down in front of my computer doing research, trying to forget the craziness of the outside world. The result was over 150,000 words spilled on this blog. Before I get to the top posts of the year, I thought I’d briefly discuss my writing process. Since I started this blog, the trend has been for me to write more long-form content.

Inflation: Everywhere and Always Differential

When it comes to inflation, economists get it wrong. More than anything else, inflation is about income redistribution.

Download: PDF | EPUB

 Inflation is always and everywhere a phenomenon of structural change

. — Jonathan Nitzan, 1992 Milton Friedman has been dead for more than a decade, but his ghost still haunts us. In the 1960s, Friedman declared that inflation is ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ — a problem of printing too much money.

The Truth About Inflation

A how-to guide for academics who want to have their name on lots of papers.

Download: PDF | EPUB  Are you an aspiring academic? If so, this manual will reveal the secret to maximizing your scholarly output. Follow my advice, and you too can become an academic hyper-producer. The golden rule: Don’t do research   Newcomers to the academy typically think that the recipe for success is to ‘do high-quality research’. Nothing could be more false.

How To Be an Academic Hyper-Producer

Want to kill the oil industry? Just enforce its obligation to cleanup old wells.

Download: PDF | EPUB  Environmentalists often argue that if we accounted for the ‘true’ costs of the fossil-fuel business, the industry would go bankrupt. While I understand this sentiment, I think the idea of ‘true’ costs is dubious. Costs exist not because they are ‘true’, but because someone has the power to enforce them. (That’s why Apple can impose a 30% commission on everything in its app store.

How to Make the Oil Industry Go Bust

My thoughts on the state of corporate power in the US.

I recently had a lively Twitter debate with Jonathan Nitzan, Shimshon Bichler and Cory Doctorow

 1

about the future of big corporations in the United States. The debate was prompted by Doctorow’s piece ‘End of the line for Reaganomics’, which I reposted on capitalaspower.com. Doctorow argues that we may be witnessing a sea change in the way governments treat big corporations.

How Dominant are Big US Corporations?

Tim Di Muzio explores the concept of ‘sabotage’ as it applies to capitalist power.

In a series of essays published in 2013 and 2014 on capitaspower.com, political economist Tim Di Muzio explored the concept of ‘sabotage’ as it applies to capitalist power. I recently rediscovered these essays and was so impressed by them that I have reposted them here as a single piece. About the author: Tim Di Muzio is a researcher at the University of Wollongong.

Di Muzio on ‘Sabotage’

I’ve spent a lot of time on this blog debunking economists’ claims about productivity. Usually, I come at the problem from a fairly technical angle, meaning I break down the contradictions involved in economists’ methods. Today, I want to try a more philosophical approach. I’m going to talk about dualism — the idea that something can be two things at once.

Dualism in Science, Theology, and Economics

Karl Marx declared that all value stems from labor. Was he right?

Download: PDF | EPUB

 … the value of a commodity is determined by the quantity of labour spent on it …

— Karl Marx In the 1860s, Karl Marx declared that all value stemmed from labor. A century-long firestorm ensued. On its own, Marx’s claim seems innocent enough. But what made it incendiary was how he used it. Starting from the idea that labor creates value, Marx built a seductive critique of capitalism.

How the Labor Theory of Value Emerges from Egalitarianism

I discuss the ongoing research into the capital-as-power model of the stock market.

Over the last year, I’ve watched with horror and amusement as health agencies around the world flip-flopped their advice on how to deal with COVID. My horror comes from knowing this flip-flopping breeds mistrust in science. But I am (morbidly) amused because I know that uncertainty is a basic part of real research. For the public, ‘science’ tends to mean authoritative knowledge.

With Great Power Comes Great Fear

Here’s the software and packages that I use the most for my research.

Last week I ran a Twitter survey to see what software my fellow researchers use. It turns out they like R:  As an avid R user myself, this result didn’t surprise me. But it did make me think about my own approach to coding. In this post I’m going to share the tools that I use for my research. To get a sense for my coding habits, I wrote a script to scan all of my code and break it down by language.

My Coding Mix

A rapid-fire post about Nitzan and Bichler’s buy-to-build indicator.

Today I’m trying a different type of post — one that’s not a deep dive, but instead, a rapid-fire summary of an important topic. My inspiration comes from Cory Doctorow, a sci-fi author who runs an old-fashioned links blog that he syndicates across the internet. (At last count, it’s on pluralistic.net, Twitter, Mastodon, and Medium). I read Doctorow’s blog daily, as he writes consistently excellent commentary on political economy.

A Brief History of the Buy-to-Build Indicator

I use word frequency to study the rise and fall of capitalist ideology.

Download: PDF | EPUB Among leftists, predicting the end of capitalism is a favorite parlor game. For example, as a graduate student in the 2010s, I remember discovering the 1976 edition of Marx’s

 Capital

and being struck by the introduction. Written by the Belgian Marxist Ernest Mandel, the foreword concluded that it was ‘most unlikely’ that capitalism would survive another half-century.

Have We Passed Peak Capitalism?

I take a look at kinetic exchange models of income, and what we can learn from their mistakes.

Let’s talk

 econophysics

. If you’re not familiar, ‘econophysics’ is an attempt to understand economic phenomena (like the distribution of income) using the tools of statistical mechanics. The field has been around for a few decades, but has received little attention from mainstream economists. I think this neglect is a shame. As someone trained in both the natural and social sciences, I welcome physicists foray into economics.

Energizing Exchange: Learning from Econophysics’ Mistakes

In his recent book, Joseph Henrich argues Western culture exists because the Catholic Church got obsessed with incest. Here’s my in-depth review.

Download: PDF | EPUB The anthropologist Joseph Henrich has written a book called

 The WEIRDest People in the World

. It offers a captivating look at the roots of Western psychology (and capitalism). Here is my in-depth review. * * * Edward O. Wilson, the famed evolutionary biologist and entomologist, argued that the goal of science should be to construct a single ‘consilient’ tree of knowledge.

Weird Consilience: A Review of Joseph Henrich’s ‘The WEIRDest People in the World’

Do unskilled people actually underestimate their incompetence?

Have you heard of the ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’? It’s the (apparent) tendency for unskilled people to overestimate their competence. Discovered in 1999 by psychologists Justin Kruger and David Dunning, the effect has since become famous. And you can see why. It’s the kind of idea that is too juicy to

 not

be true. Everyone ‘knows’ that idiots tend to be unaware of their own idiocy.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation

Let’s move all textbooks to the Creative Commons.

Today a rant about

 textbooks

. Every year governments spend billions of dollars on public education, teaching students knowledge that was itself created by publicly funded research. Yet each year, university students must pay anew for this information by purchasing high-priced textbooks. It needn’t be this way. Most university textbooks are written by tenured (or tenure-track) professors.

Why Are Most Textbooks Still Proprietary?

Is capitalist power built on social sabotage?

James McMahon and Blair Fix


 The most important feature of private ownership is not that it enables those who own, but that it disables those who do not.

— Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler A key aspect of Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler’s theory of ‘capital as power’ is that it treats property not as a productive asset, but as a negative social relation.

In Search of Sabotage

I crunch the numbers on oil-and-gas depletion in Alberta.

A few months ago I received an intriguing email from researcher and activist Regan Boychuk. For the past 15 years, Boychuk has been studying the oil-and-gas industry in Alberta (Canada) and he wanted to know if I would join his project. I immediately said yes. Some backstory. You can think of Alberta as the Texas of Canada. Alberta is endowed with a vast trove of oil that it has been exploiting for the past 75 years.

A Case Study of Fossil-Fuel Depletion

This is the first of two essays written for (and supported by) the Seoul Platform for Initiating Discourses on an Equitable and Resilient Society. These essays investigate the role that hierarchy plays in driving inequality and unsustainability. This piece introduces the facts of hierarchy.

Living the good life in a non-growth world: Investigating the role of hierarchy

In case you missed them, here are the Top 5 posts of the last year.

Well readers, 2020 is finally done. In most respects, it was a terrible year. But it turns out that being stuck in the house is good for a few things … one of them being writing. I churned out 50 posts this year and typed about 150,000 words. Here are the top 5 posts by views: What Trait Affects Income the Most? Stocks Are Up. Wages Are Down. What Does it Mean?

As 2020 Ends, Let’s Celebrate Science

As 2021 comes to a close, I’m having a distinct sense of déjà vu. A year ago, I wrote a post celebrating COVID vaccines as a triumph of science. And I noted that vaccine discovery is a

 collective

endeavour. The cumulative number of major vaccines tracks closely with the cumulative number of scientific papers, a bellwether for humanity’s collective knowledge.

COVID Déjà Vu

Here’s a recording of a talk that got zoom bombed.

An artist’s enemy is obscurity …  — Cory Doctorow  Like art, the dirty secret of science is that much of it remains painfully obscure. A scientist might spend years collecting and analyzing data, only to have their paper read by a handful of people. Such is the nature of highly specialized work.

Hierarchy, Zoom Bombed

Here are some tricks for scraping the web with R and Python.

This week I’m sharing some tips for web scraping. The internet is overflowing with information. But it usually takes some work to get the data into a usable form. Here are some tricks for making that happen. Scraping starts with downloading   Every scrape job starts with a download. When you view a website on your computer, your browser is just displaying data that it downloaded from the website’s server.

Tips for  Web Scraping in R and Python

In this guest post, economist Christophe Petit pays tribute to his friend and mentor David Graeber.

As many of you know, the anthropologist David Graeber died recently at the age of 59. Many of us are still coming to grips with this loss. Graeber was a rare individual — both a tireless activist and a superb scholar. In this guest post, teacher and a financial analyst Christophe Petit pays tribute to Graeber, his friend and mentor.

A Tribute to David Graeber

Frederick Soddy looms large in the field of ecological economics. Here’s a short dive into his ideas.

In the field of ecological economics, Frederick Soddy looms large. Born in 1877, Soddy became a chemist and eventually won a Nobel prize for work on radioactive decay. Then he turned his attention to

 economics

. Between 1921 and 1934, Soddy wrote four books that looked at how money relates to the physical economy. For his ground-breaking work, Soddy was rewarded with deafening silence.

Frederick Soddy’s Debt Dynamics

I’ve always been baffled why ‘modern monetary theory’ is called a

 theory

. I don’t mean this in a disparaging way. As far as theories of money go, I think modern monetary theory (MMT for short) is the correct one. But having a correct theory of money is a bit like having a correct theory of traffic lights. Traffic lights (like money) are a social convention.

Why Isn’t Modern Monetary Theory Common Knowledge?

I recount the difficult lives of a few revolutionary scientists. And I discuss some career tips for doing revolutionary science in a hostile world.

In this two-part post, I’ve been reflecting on the challenges of doing revolutionary science. (See Part 1 here.) I’ve argued that revolutionary science — the practice of questioning the core principles of an accepted theory — is difficult for a simple reason. To do it, you must fight the instinct to

 conform

. Conformity is the glue that holds human groups together. It’s what underpins the rule of law and the norms of trade.

The Challenges of Doing Revolutionary Science (Part 2)

I discuss biophysical constraints on our ability to cope with the current pandemic.

Back in January, physicist Brian Stewart asked me to give a talk to his “Radical Sustainability” class at Wesleyan University. The talk was to be in early April, and Brian offered to fly me to Connecticut for the occasion. Luckily I decided at the time to give the lecture virtually. So when the coronavirus forced us all to stay home, nothing much changed. On that note, here’s a video of the talk.

Biophysical Economics and the Coronavirus Pandemic

Chris Mouré has a new paper on big-tech battles. Here are the highlights.

Political economist Chris Mouré has a new paper out in the

 Review of Capital as Power

. It’s called ‘Soft-wars’, and it is a fascinating case study of the behavior of big tech. The story starts in 2011, when Microsoft led a $4.5 billion consortium purchase of Nortel and Novel. Later than year, Google responded by buying Motorola for $12.9 billion.

Soft-wars

Exciting news, friends! I’ve joined Patreon! What’s Patreon, you ask? Patreon is a crowdfunding site that gives creators a way to earn money. Here’s how it works. If you think my research is worth supporting, you can become a ‘patron’ of Economics from the Top Down. As a patron, you’ll donate a small amount monthly.

I’ve Joined Patreon

In the US military, returns to education are mediated almost completely by hierarchical rank.

In The Social Environment as a Cause in Economics I argued that human behavior has two parts: Individual variation An environment that acts on this variation  To illustrate these two parts, I used the example of the peppered moth. This species comes in two colors — black and white. Which color is better for survival? It depends on the environment. On natural-colored trees, white moths are better camouflaged. So being white is better.

How Hierarchy Can Mediate the Returns to Education

Economists purge the social environment from their theory of human behavior. Here’s why this is a mistake.

Have you noticed that economists are missing a word in their vocabulary? In microeconomics you’ll see words like ‘individual’, ‘utility’ and ‘maximize’. But you won’t see the word ‘environment’ anywhere. It seems that in microeconomics, individuals maximize their utility in a void. [1]  This lobotomy of the environment has led economists astray.

The Social Environment as a Cause in Economics

Some philosophical thoughts on Canada’s recent election.

Yesterday, Canada had an election that was notable for its pointlessness. The Liberal party went into the election with a minority government. And it came out with the same thing. The election was, however, an interesting testament to the pragmatism of the powerful. Like Barack Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is gifted at lofty rhetoric. But he’s ultimately a pragmatist, dedicated to holding on to power.

Power Over Principles

Here are ten tips for making your research open to fellow scientists.

Science is the quintessential public good. It’s an iterative process in which new knowledge builds on previous knowledge. For this process to work, science needs to be ‘open’. Both the results and methods of scientific research need to be freely available for all. The open science movement is trying to make this a reality. In this post, I share some tips for doing open science.

Ten Tips For Doing Open Science

If you’re good at something that isn’t valued by other people, you won’t be rewarded. This is the tyranny of meritocracy.

Like many Canadians, I grew up with a faith in meritocracy. Do your best, I believed, and the world would reward you. In school, this idea seemed self-evidently true. I worked hard, and was rewarded with good grades and praise from teachers. And those students who didn’t get good grades? Well they had less skill — less merit — than me. Or so I thought. In hindsight, I cringe at my naivety.

The Tyranny of Meritocracy

I explore how sociality underpins the evolution of big life.

The game I play is a very interesting one. It’s imagination in a tight straitjacket.

— Richard Feynman Like Richard Feynman’s game of science, evolution is stuck in a straitjacket. It is driven by chance. But evolution is not free to explore every path. Take, as an example, the evolution of organism size.

The Evolution of ‘Big’: How Sociality Made Life Larger

Human intuition for probability may not be as ‘biased’ as behavioral economists think.

According to behavioral economics, most human decisions are mired in ‘bias’. It muddles our actions from the mundane to the monumental. Human behavior, it seems, is hopelessly subpar.

 1

Or is it? You see, the way that behavioral economists define ‘bias’ is rather peculiar.

Is Human Probability Intuition Actually ‘Biased’?

I quantify the cutthroat nature of the music industry by measuring the half life of hit songs — the time they spend above 50% of their peak popularity.

The music business is a cruel and shallow money trench, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free, and good men die like dogs.

— Hunter S. Thompson meme

 1

Browse the internet long enough and you’ll eventually run across Hunter S. Thompson’s meme about the music industry. The meme is actually a misquote, but it’s still a fair representation of what the music business is like.

Economics from the Top Down

The Rise of Human Capital Theory