Published in Alex Holcombe's blog
Author Alex O. Holcombe

The headline screams “You’re 45% more likely to be murdered in de Blasio’s Manhattan”. The evidence? Sixteen people have been killed so far this year in Manhattan, against only eleven over the same period last year. Does this evidence indicate you are more likely to be murdered, as the headline says? To find out, I tested whether a constant murder rate could explain the results.